B1G Time: Indiana’s dominance amid 3-0 begin shouldn’t be neglected, ideas on Michigan QB change
Whereas seldom mentioned, many followers see school soccer as a one-month season. Whenever you’re a fan of a workforce that is not sometimes competing for convention titles, crossing your fingers till the circulation’s reduce off and hoping to get to a bowl sport, the 12 months usually ends earlier than September does.
Should you look across the Large Ten proper now, there are 9 undefeated groups remaining and 5 off to 3-0 begins. Of these 9, six are ranked within the present AP Prime 25. Then there’s one who is not. It is a type of colleges the place followers have grown accustomed to taking a look at soccer as one thing to do till basketball begins, however this 12 months, the basketball workforce could have to attend a bit longer for consideration.
Expensive reader, the voters of the most important polls could not have seen but, however the Indiana Hoosiers are good. Adequate that I would argue they need to be within the polls forward of two Large Ten groups at the moment ranked, and a type of groups is Michigan. The opposite is Illinois.
That is not a shot at both of these groups, however the truth of the matter is if you happen to’re rating both of them proper now, it’s best to have Indiana in your poll, too, and forward of each. Michigan has wins towards Fresno State and Arkansas State, in addition to a blowout residence loss to Texas. Illinois’ win towards Kansas appeared significantly better earlier than the Jayhawks adopted it up with one other loss to UNLV.
Indiana’s resume, there is not an incredible win. Saturday evening’s dominant 42-13 street win over UCLA ought to function a warning to the remainder of the Large Ten that this workforce is to not be neglected; nevertheless, beating the Bruins would not transfer the needle nationally, nor will wins towards FIU and Western Illinois. Nonetheless, the key phrase within the description of Indiana’s win is “dominant.”
I’ve lengthy argued who you play is not as worthy an indicator of how good a workforce is as the way you play, and few groups have performed higher than the Hoosiers, who have not trailed at any level this season. The one different Large Ten groups who can say which might be Nebraska and Rutgers (you understand, the same old suspects), and the latter has solely performed two video games. Moreover, the Hoosiers have not spent a lot time in tie video games both. They strike early and hold pummeling. Indiana has held the lead for 91.99% of their snaps this 12 months, the best fee within the convention.
Taking that to the following degree, the Hoosiers have held a two-score lead or extra for 83.98% of their snaps, which additionally leads the Large Ten. The subsequent closest groups are Nebraska (75.5%) and Ohio State (70.29%). No one else is even shut; Rutgers is the one different workforce over 50%.
To be clear, none of this ought to be taken as an indication Indiana is able to compete for a convention title. Whereas enjoying nice is essential, enjoying effectively towards good competitors does matter. But it surely might be some time earlier than we get a definitive reply on this workforce.
Indiana performs Charlotte this week after which faces Maryland at residence to finish the month. That is adopted up with a street sport towards a Northwestern workforce that appears extraordinarily beatable. We could not have an concept of how good the Hoosiers really are till Nebraska involves Bloomington on Oct. 19.
In fact, Indiana might simply be 6-0 by then, and dangerous groups do not often begin seasons with six straight wins towards anyone. Maybe they will even be ranked!
Fast ideas on Michigan QB change
No must go in-depth on this, as I wrote loads of phrases about it final week, however Michigan coach Sherrone Moore introduced Monday that Alex Orji will begin for the Wolverines this week towards USC. I’ve no drawback with the choice as a result of even when none of Davis Warren’s go makes an attempt hit the turf towards Arkansas State, he threw three interceptions, and even the 11 completions to his workforce weren’t spectacular.
Nonetheless, I believe there are extra issues on the Michigan offense than the QB, so a change will not repair every part.
My solely request is similar one I made final week. You went with Warren towards Arkansas State, it did not work, and also you went to Orji to switch him. Now Orji is being named the starter, and the offense you’ll run with Orji is not going to be the identical as with Warren. Maybe that is for the higher, given the present personnel, however keep it up if that is the change you make.
If Orji struggles towards USC, depart him in, after which depart him within the following week towards Minnesota. It is the one manner any of this has an opportunity to work. It is already clear the Wolverines is not going to be successful one other nationwide title this season, and it would not appear to be a Large Ten title is within the playing cards, both. However enjoying musical chairs at QB solely will increase the percentages of the underside falling out completely, and the Michigan protection remains to be adequate to maintain this workforce close to the highest of the standings.
Catch of the week
Final week, I highlighted Illinois’ Zakhari Franklin utilizing one hand to reel in a Luke Altmyer go alongside the sideline. This week, it is Altmyer accepting the problem. Rattling close to each receiver catches passes with one hand at this time, however what number of are catching their very own passes?
The Illini adopted up their win over Kansas final week with a 30-9 win over Central Michigan to get to 3-0. It is the primary time Illinois has began a season 3-0 since 2011, after they began 6-0. That 3-0 begin in 2011 additionally included a win over a ranked opponent (Arizona State) and noticed the Illini debut at No. 24 within the AP Prime 25 after, identical to the place they’re now.
Then the Illini misplaced six straight and fired Ron Zook earlier than successful their bowl sport. Can historical past repeat itself? I positive as hell hope not.
Three scorching takes
Blazing — Kurtis Rourke is probably the most impactful switch QB within the Large Ten: OK, so this one has been baking in my mind oven for some time now, however I did not wish to unleash it whereas Dillon Gabriel and the Geese had been enjoying mediocre soccer. Now that Oregon appeared just like the workforce we thought it might be towards Oregon State, I am prepared to unleash it upon the world.
You did not assume you would be studying this many phrases on Indiana, did you? Effectively, take care of it. They’re good, and Rourke is an enormous purpose why. I’ve beloved Rourke since he was tearing it up within the MAC with Ohio and have lengthy felt he was adequate to play at this degree. Up to now, he is completed an unimaginable job operating the Indiana offense. Actually, whether or not it is a throw or a choice on an RPO, I am unsure I’ve seen him make a mistake but.
Most individuals will argue that Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard are extra impactful, and I get it, however don’t overlook the influence Rourke is having on his workforce. In fact, the irony is that I used to be dissatisfied when Indiana misplaced Brendan Sorsby to Cincinnati within the portal; I believe he is a superb participant, too. He is proving me proper by enjoying effectively for the Bearcats, so this might be a type of “everyone wins” conditions.
Will depart a scar if touched — Andy Kotelnicki can be a Large Ten head coach in 2025: Penn State did not play this weekend, however Andy Kotelnicki received anyway. After dropping to Illinois final week, Kotelnicki’s former workforce, Kansas, misplaced once more to UNLV. Through the 2022 and 2023 seasons with Kotelnicki calling the performs, the Jayhawks offense scored 2.92 factors per possession. This 12 months, of their first three video games since he left to run the Penn State offense, the Jayhawks are averaging 2.63 factors per drive, and nearly all of that harm was completed towards Lindenwood. Of their losses to Illinois and UNLV, they’re at 1.76 factors per drive.
Given the early returns on Penn State’s offense, it is not exhausting to think about Kotelnicki’s identify can be a preferred one on the teaching carousel, and I believe he’ll land a Large Ten job ought to one come open. Which one? Effectively, I do not know, however Kotelnicki grew up in Minnesota …
This feels heat — Wisconsin is not going to make a bowl sport: I used to be getting this sense earlier than the Tyler Van Dyke harm towards Alabama, and now it appears way more seemingly. As was feared on the time of the harm, Van Dyke will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. It is is a crushing blow each to Van Dyke and the Badgers. The offense didn’t look good even earlier than Van Dyke’s harm, as the identical issues the unit confirmed towards South Dakota and Western Michigan had been magnified towards Alabama.
I am not optimistic Braedyn Locke is the man to convey the explosive performs the unit was missing, and whenever you take a look at the remainder of the schedule, it is exhausting to seek out 4 video games you are assured Wisconsin can win.
Stat of the week
Do not look now, however the Iowa Hawkeyes are scoring 32.3 factors per sport! As unimaginable as that’s, it isn’t the stat of the week. No, we’ll the opposite aspect of the ball this week to share a worrisome pattern in regards to the Hawkeyes.
Early returns recommend this Iowa protection is weak on the again finish. During the last seven seasons, Iowa has allowed solely 24 go performs of fifty yards or extra. That averages out to three.42 per season, they usually’ve allowed greater than three in solely three of these seven seasons.
Iowa has allowed three passes of fifty yards or extra of their first three video games of 2024, and it is allowed them towards Illinois State, Iowa State and Troy.
The excellent news is that Iowa nonetheless ranks within the prime 20 nationally in defensive success fee, factors allowed per possession and explosive play fee. So there is no want to fret about 45-42 shootouts coming to Iowa Metropolis any time quickly, nevertheless it’s price monitoring because the Hawkeyes put together to start Large Ten play this week.
Title to know
Maryland bounced again from its residence loss to Michigan State with a street win over Virginia Saturday, and as has been the case each week, vast receiver Tai Felton led the way in which. Felton completed with 9 receptions for 117 yards and a landing. He is caught not less than seven passes in each sport, and his 111 yards towards the Cavaliers was his lowest yardage complete to this point. He is additionally scored not less than one landing in each sport, and his 149 yards receiving per sport leads the Large Ten and ranks third nationally.
Headscratcher of the week
In Will Rogers’ lengthy school profession, he has thrown for 13,140 yards and 100 touchdowns. He has rushed for -350 yards and two touchdowns. I do not know what Washington’s thought course of was right here. Possibly they thought it was the very last thing anyone would anticipate? I do know I positive did not see it coming.
So about Purdue
Purdue is not as dangerous because it appeared in its 66-7 loss to Notre Dame Saturday, nevertheless it’s exhausting to take something from that efficiency to be ok with. It is not merely {that a} rival got here into your stadium and destroyed you; it is that they handled you a similar manner energy convention groups deal with the FCS colleges that come to city. The best way you handled Indiana State.
Given the Boilermakers misplaced their finest offensive weapon (Deion Burks) and most disruptive defender (Nic Scourton) within the switch portal, I had suspicions this workforce might battle this 12 months. Nonetheless, I did not see what occurred Saturday coming. Making issues worse, it is not like issues get a complete lot simpler. Purdue nonetheless has to play Nebraska, Illinois, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and the Juggernaut Hoosiers.
Whereas there is no straightforward repair, I’m wondering if coach Ryan Walters and defensive coordinator Kevin Kane ought to contemplate altering issues up on protection. Walters received the Purdue job due to his aggressive nature as a defensive coordinator at Illinois. His groups use quite a lot of man protection. Effectively, I do not know that Purdue at the moment has the personnel to depend on enjoying a lot man proper now, they usually’re enjoying loads of man. In line with TruMedia, Purdue has performed man on 87.8% of its defensive snaps. Notre Dame has performed on the second-highest fee. It is at 58.8%.
Going with my intestine
Each week I choose the Large Ten video games towards the unfold primarily based on nothing however my intestine response to the quantity. No digging into numbers — simply vibes, child. I even monitor my document to embarrass myself publicly. Odds through SportsLine consensus.
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan: It is robust to belief the Wolverines proper now. They had been crushed by Texas at residence and have made a change at QB after letting Arkansas State dangle round manner too lengthy. Now they’ve to interrupt in a brand new QB to run a special fashion of offense, they usually solely have per week to get every part so as. In the meantime, USC had final weekend off to offer the Trojans extra time to arrange. This would be the hardest take a look at Miller Moss and the Trojans offense has confronted to this point, however I do not belief the Michigan offense sufficient to imagine they will hold it shut. USC -5.5
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (Friday) — Illinois +8.5
Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State — Marshall +39.5
Charlotte at Indiana — Indiana -28
Kent State at No. 10 Penn State — Penn State -49
Rutgers at Virginia Tech — Virginia Tech -3
UCLA at No. 16 LSU — UCLA +25.5
Northwestern at Washington — Washington -10.5
Iowa at Minnesota — Iowa -2.5
Michigan State at Boston Faculty — Michigan State +7
Purdue at Oregon State — Purdue +4.5
Final Week: 5-5
2024 Season: 23-16