How Will Bill Belichick Aim to Shut Down Lamar Jackson?
The wrinkle for the Dolphins was to have safety Brandon Jones spy Jackson with the rest of the defense in man coverage. In 2019, the Pats did the same with Jonathan Jones to get a more athletic open-field tackler as the spy instead of a linebacker.
Although there are advantages to man coverage, the Patriots have played 77 percent of their defensive snaps in zone coverage this season.
With the ultra-mobile Jackson coming to town, we expect the Patriots to sit in zone and make Lamar beat them with his arm.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE
The Ravens are two games into the Mike Macdonald era on the defensive side of the ball.
Macdonald spent seven seasons with the Ravens, including three with former defensive coordinator Don Martindale, before returning to Baltimore after a short stint as Michigan’s defensive coordinator.
Due to Macdonald’s history in Baltimore, the Ravens defense has plenty of carryover from the Martindale days. But with only two weeks of film, it’s hard to get a great read on if Macdonald will turn up the aggressiveness as his predecessor did.
Martindale’s defenses consistently ranked among the league leaders in blitz rate, and as the Pats saw in the preseason with Wink’s Giants, the veteran coach has a maniacal blitz package.
Macdonald’s zone-heavy approach in the first two weeks featured less blitzing, which is pretty typical when you play the majority of reps in zone.
Baltimore still did some exotic scheming in the first two weeks, like dropping free safety Marcus Williams all the way from the line of scrimmage to centerfield. But we didn’t see a pressure package on Wink’s level.
Without much tape and all of it coming against the Shanahan tree, it’s difficult to say what a tweaked Ravens defense might do against the Patriots on Sunday.
Based on their first two games, they’ll play a lot of zone coverage, which means the floods, high-lows, and possibly more play-action concepts will be called frequently.
Belichick explained earlier this week that play-action is less effective against man coverage. Baltimore, who played zone primarily in the first two weeks, has given up the most receptions (21) against play-action through two games.
The Ravens linebackers are aggressive downhill players, especially Patrick Queen, and can be easily sucked into the line of scrimmage by play-action.
If the Ravens morph into a man coverage defense as the Steelers did last week, expect a similar passing script of crossers, dig routes, and verticals to clear out the coverage.
Baltimore’s defensive strategy is a bit of an unknown against a non-Shanahan-style offense, so we anticipate adjustments once the game declares.
1. Pats LT Trent Brown vs. Ravens EDGE Justin Houston
This matchup is more about the interior rushers for the Ravens than Houston, but the veteran pass-rusher can still get after it and takes advantage of the interior guys denting the pocket. DT Justin Madubuike is a rising star, Calais Campbell hasn’t lost much juice, and Michael Pierce is a stout early-down nose tackle. Mac Jones might not have much room to step up in the pocket, which has opened the side door for Houston in the first two games (2 sacks, 11 QB pressures).
2. Pats DT Davon Godchaux vs. Ravens C Tyler Linderbaum
Everybody knows that Baltimore wants to run the football, and they’d prefer to use gap schemes to get downhill. The rookie center has held up through two games, but Godchaux needs to lead the charge in occupying the interior trio. The Pats need to turn this into a zone rushing attack, not a downhill game, to limit the explosive plays on the ground for Baltimore. Big week for Godchaux.
3. Pats WR Nelson Agholor vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey/Marcus Peters
Pats wideout Jakobi Meyers (knee) is banged up, as is Humphrey (groin), and both didn’t participate in practice in the first two days. The Ravens will play some man coverage this week, so if that leads to Peters on Agholor, then the Pats speedster needs to win that matchup. Look for New England to run Agholor out of the slot. If Peters travels with him, that’s a mismatch inside. Peters is much more comfortable ball-hawking on the boundary in zone.
4. Pats CB Jonathan Jones vs. Ravens WR Rashod Bateman
We all know about Mark Andrews. But the player who stood out the most on the Ravens offense while watching film is the second-year wideout. As evidenced by taking a slant 75 yards to the house against Miami, Bateman combines straight-line explosiveness with noticeable separation quickness through the break. Although we anticipate that the Pats will lean heavily on zone coverage, Bateman is quickly developing into Lamar’s 1B to Andrews when the Ravens face man-to-man.
