How a magic number often dictates outcomes for Dak, Cowboys

FRISCO, TX — Make no mistake about it, the Dallas Cowboys have their work cut out for them over the next several weeks, and it’s imperative they’re the ones left holding the scissors against the sheared fabric before the month of December rolls around.

With the gauntlet of opponents licking their chops to face an undermanned Cowboys’ roster, one of the biggest areas of focus actually boils down to one simple number.

This offseason saw the Cowboys throw top draft capital at the offensive line to help upgrade the unit by way of Tyler Guyton, a first-round pick, at left tackle to replace future Hall of Fame talent Tyron Smith, and Cooper Beebe, a third-round pick, for conversion from a collegiate guard to an NFL center.

Both Guyton and Beebe were acquired in one stroke of draft brilliance via a trade with the very same Detroit Lions that are making their way to Arlington this week with malicious intent. And, as it stands, the offensive line as a whole, and not simply the rookies, have had a mixed bag of good and bad through the first five games,

As a unit, the offensive line along with the running backs in pass protection have allowed a total of 71 pressures and 12 sacks on Dak Prescott through Week 5, and these are numbers that are only comparable with the struggles of 2020, when the pressure rate allowed by opposing teams were almost literally equal (21.8%) to the current season; but with two fewer sacks allowed in 2020 (10).

Teams also blitzed Prescott a total of 66 times through the first five games of 2020, but only 43 times thus far in 2024 — meaning the opposition is getting near or to Prescott equally or more often while sending an extra blitzer at him 35 percent less than in 2020.

Now, here’s where the numero uno comes into play here.

Dak Prescott career record versus sacks:

• 1< sacks: 41-11 (2-2 in the {playoffs})
• 1.5> sacks: 35-32 (0-3 in the {playoffs})

It goes without saying that there is an obvious context that should be understood without having to be explained, but I’ll restate it here for the unenlightened and or willfully obtuse: the quality of the Cowboys’ defense in these respective seasons also lend to the overall win-loss record mentioned above, as well as other variables such as self-inflicted wounds such as penalties and/or calls that might have altered the outcome of a game, true enough.

It’s also true that there is something to the sack correlation.

An interesting tidbit here is that Prescott actually thrives when blitzed, being one of the best in the league against it when he faces it, but that simply ties right back into the underlying point here of the Cowboys’ needing to stop pressure in non-blitz applications to force teams to send the extra guy at Prescott, which would then open up space in the passing game, particularly at the second level where YAC (yards after the catch) can then be had.

Kudos to Prescott to overcome self-inflicted wounds of his own — e.g., the lost fumble and two interceptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers — to help will the Cowboys to a 3-2 record, winning in both Week 1 and in Week 5, despite being sacked two or more times in each contest, but did the offense light up the scoreboard in either of those two victories?

Not even remotely, my friend.

But, that said, it feels as if the offense is on the precipice of a breakthrough, and all the very, very talented offensive line has to do is take it one rep at a time.

Currently ranked No. 2 in passing yards in the league entering Week 6, with 1,424 on the season (behind only Geno Smith (1,466) and ahead of CJ Stroud (1,385)), Prescott is moving the ball seemingly at will against some of the best defenses in the NFL but, as seen with the sack fumble in the Steel City, the rate at which he’s being sacked, or not sacked, directly impacts what the outcome of a game might look like.

The good news is the offensive line is beginning to show improvement in their communication and execution and, let’s be honest here, things could’ve been much worse when considering who they’ve already faced this season across the ball.

And as they prepare for Aiden Hutchinson and Nick Bosa over the next two contests, and the defensive lines of the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans and Washington Commanders in the immediate weeks to follow (not to overlook a very capable Atlanta Falcons’ front here as well), if they can simply keep Prescott from being sacked more than once per game, the odds of the landing a victory, if all else goes according to plan, become exponentially higher.

Anchored by a future first ballot Hall of Famer in Zack Martin and a fellow All-Pro in Tyler Smith, the issue isn’t lack of ability on the O-line in Dallas. It’s the perfect storm of the learning process of rookies mixing with a weekly test by some of the best defensive fronts in all of football to begin the season.

Just take it one game at a time and continue the improvement.

As it stands, Prescott has a career record of 5-0 against the Lions, having thrown for 11 touchdowns against them to only one interception. It’s the most wins and touchdowns for Prescott against any non-NFC East team since he joined the Cowboys in 2016. They sacked Prescott three times in the 2023 matchup, and it nearly cost Dallas the game — landing a controversial 20-19 victory at AT&T Stadium.

In keeping to the context of this science, remember what I said about Prescott excelling against the blitz and the goal being to force teams to send an extra man at him?

Those three sacks (all from Hutchinson, by the way) came often due to the fact the Lions blitzed on 56.1 percent Prescott’s dropbacks, the second-highest blitz rate he’d faced in a game since 2018, per Next Gen Stats, to help their defensive line get through what was solid blocking.

Prescott completed 14 of his 20 attempts against those blitzes for 225 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.

Don’t want it to be that close this time around?

Make the Lions and every other team blitz him by blocking the opponents’ front three or four, and then Prescott will need to do what he does best, while improving on stepping up and running/scrambling when the opportunity presents itself.

If those things happen, the Cowboys’ offense can again be formidable and the wins can be stacked, again, assuming the defense can also match serve.

It’s the only way the Cowboys will stand a chance at being the last one standing every week and, hopefully, in the postseason.