Bucs vs. Saints Data Crunch: A Deep Dive into the Rivalry
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints square off, it’s always a high-stakes matchup. These two NFC South rivals have built a fierce competition over the years, producing some of the most intense games in the division. As both teams look to establish dominance in the 2024 NFL season, understanding the statistics and data behind their performances offers a clearer picture of what to expect in their next meeting.
This data-driven analysis breaks down key metrics, recent performances, and trends that could impact the upcoming Bucs vs. Saints showdown.
Quarterback Showdown: Derek Carr vs. Baker Mayfield
At the heart of every football game lies the quarterback duel, and in this case, it’s Derek Carr for the Saints and Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers. Both quarterbacks have had seasons marked by ups and downs, and how they perform on the field will be a decisive factor in this rivalry.
Derek Carr (Saints)
Carr, who joined the Saints in 2023, has quickly adapted to head coach Dennis Allen’s offense. Through the first five weeks of the 2024 season, Carr has thrown for 1,274 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, posting a passer rating of 93.2. His ability to manage the game and deliver in clutch situations has been instrumental in the Saints’ 3-2 start.
Key metrics show Carr’s efficiency in third-down situations, where he has completed 65% of his passes for 326 yards and 4 touchdowns. His connection with wide receiver Chris Olave has been especially strong, as Olave has already racked up 403 yards and 4 touchdowns on 29 receptions.
One area of concern for Carr, however, has been his performance under pressure. In games where Carr has been hurried or sacked multiple times, his completion rate drops to 57%, and he has thrown 3 of his 4 interceptions in those situations. The offensive line’s ability to protect him against Tampa Bay’s aggressive pass rush will be critical.
Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)
After being named the Bucs’ starting quarterback at the start of the season, Mayfield has brought new energy to the Tampa Bay offense. In the first five games, Mayfield has thrown for 1,203 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, earning a 98.7 passer rating. Known for his ability to improvise and make plays on the run, Mayfield’s dual-threat capabilities have given defenses fits.
Mayfield’s red-zone efficiency has been a bright spot for the Buccaneers. He has a red-zone passer rating of 110.4, throwing 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions in those crucial moments. His ability to scramble has also led to key plays, with Mayfield rushing for 137 yards on 18 attempts, often extending drives when the pocket collapses.
However, Mayfield has also been prone to inconsistency. In the Bucs’ Week 3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Mayfield struggled against an elite secondary, completing just 54% of his passes and throwing a costly interception. How he performs against the Saints’ defense, which ranks among the top 10 in passing yards allowed, will be a pivotal storyline.
Running Game: Alvin Kamara vs. Rachaad White
While both teams have strong passing attacks, the running game will also play a significant role in determining the outcome of the Bucs vs. Saints matchup.
Alvin Kamara (Saints)
Returning from suspension, Alvin Kamara has quickly made his presence felt in the Saints’ backfield. In his first two games of 2024, Kamara rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns, while adding 109 receiving yards. His versatility as a runner and receiver out of the backfield makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
Kamara’s success in the screen game has been particularly notable. He leads the NFL in screen pass yardage, with 142 yards on just 7 receptions. The Saints often rely on Kamara to generate positive plays when their offense stalls, and his ability to make defenders miss in open space is a key asset.
Rachaad White (Buccaneers)
On the other side, Rachaad White has emerged as Tampa Bay’s lead running back. White, who is in his second season, has rushed for 478 yards and 4 touchdowns so far in 2024, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He has also contributed in the passing game with 206 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
White’s performance has been marked by his consistency in short-yardage situations. He has converted 76% of his third-and-short attempts, providing the Buccaneers with a reliable option when they need to move the chains. However, Tampa Bay’s offensive line has struggled at times to create running lanes, especially against elite defensive fronts, which could be a problem when facing the Saints’ strong run defense.
Defensive Battle: Saints’ Secondary vs. Bucs’ Pass Rush
Both teams boast formidable defenses, with specific units excelling in areas that could prove to be game-changers.
Saints’ Secondary
The Saints have built a reputation for their defensive prowess, particularly in the secondary. New Orleans ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, giving up just 183.6 yards per game through the air. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore continues to be the leader of the defense, consistently locking down the opponent’s top receiver. In the first five games, Lattimore has held opposing quarterbacks to a 52.3 passer rating when targeting his assignment.
The Saints’ safety tandem of Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye has also been effective in limiting big plays. The duo has combined for 4 interceptions and 11 pass breakups, and their ability to disguise coverage schemes has led to confusion for opposing quarterbacks.
Buccaneers’ Pass Rush
Tampa Bay’s defense, under coordinator Todd Bowles, thrives on pressuring the quarterback. The Bucs rank 3rd in the NFL in sacks, with 19 through the first five weeks. Edge rushers Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka have combined for 9.5 sacks, and the defensive line has consistently disrupted offensive game plans.
What makes the Bucs’ pass rush even more dangerous is their ability to bring pressure from multiple angles. Bowles is known for his creative blitz packages, often sending linebackers and safeties into the backfield. Against a Saints offensive line that has allowed 13 sacks, how well New Orleans can protect Carr will be crucial.
Special Teams: The X-Factor
Special teams could play a decisive role in a close game, and both teams have strong units in this area.
Saints Kicking Game
The Saints have been steady in the kicking game, with veteran kicker Wil Lutz connecting on 12 of 14 field goal attempts, including a perfect 5-for-5 from beyond 50 yards. Lutz’s reliability from long distance gives the Saints an advantage in low-scoring games, allowing them to capitalize on drives that stall before the red zone.
Bucs Return Game
On the flip side, the Buccaneers boast a dangerous return game, led by wide receiver Deven Thompkins. Thompkins leads the NFL in punt return average, with 17.3 yards per return, and has already recorded one return touchdown this season. His ability to flip field position quickly is a critical asset for Tampa Bay’s offense, which benefits from starting drives in favorable territory.
Head-to-Head Trends
In recent years, the Saints have had the upper hand in the rivalry, winning 7 of their last 10 meetings against the Buccaneers. However, Tampa Bay has claimed two key victories in the postseason, including a 2021 playoff win that ended Drew Brees’ career.
