When the Cincinnati Bengals take at the Kansas City Chiefs withinside the 2023 AFC Championship Game, it is going to be the fourth time those aspects have confronted off over a 12-month span. Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor are becoming the higher of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at the preceding 3 occasions, and feature extra wins in opposition to the Mahomes technology Chiefs than anybody else withinside the NFL.
Three consecutive wins in opposition to the Kansas City juggernaut is surely extraordinary and can suggest dominance, however the truth is this rising contention has been pretty close. All 3 Bengals wins have come with the aid of using a area purpose, and two times they had to rally from a halftime double-digit deficit. Cincinnati`s handiest had 4 offensive possessions even as preserving a lead, as compared to thirteen for Kansas City.
But there are some elements at play that assist provide an explanation for why the Bengals had been capable of pop out effective on every occasion, and all of them loom huge this Sunday.
Cincinnati has received the turnover battle
The Bengals have taken wonderful care of the ball, turning it over handiest as soon as in 3 meetings—a Joe Burrow interception in ultimate years AFC Championship Game—and the protection held the Chiefs to a 3-and-out on the following ownership. Meanwhile, Kansas Citys 3 giveaways couldn`t had been extra costly:
2022 AFC Championship: A 0.33 zone Patrick Mahomes interception outcomes in Bengals ownership at Kansas City`s 27-backyard line. Cincinnati ratings a landing and -factor conversion to tie the sport at 21-21.
2022 AFC Championship: Another Mahomes interception in extra time offers Cincinnati the ball at their very own 45-backyard line, and in the end kick the sport-triumphing area purpose.
2022 everyday season: Leading 24-20 withinside the fourth zone, Travis Kelce loses a fumble and the Bengals advantage ownership at their very own 47-backyard line. Cincinnati ratings the sport-triumphing landing with eight:fifty four left in regulation.
Turnovers had been a season-lengthy trouble for Kansas City in 2022. The Chiefs had a -three in turnover differential withinside the everyday season, as compared to the Bengalsstellar +6. In postseason play, Cincys turnover margin is a brilliant +nine relationship returned to ultimate year.
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Cincinnati`s late-recreation execution has been superior
The fourth zone (and extra time) has belonged to the Bengals on each aspects of the ball. They have outscored the Chiefs 26-6 withinside the very last period, the most important factor differential among the 2 groups in any zone.
2021 everyday season: The Chiefshandiest failure to attain a purple sector landing happened withinside the fourth zone even as trailing 31-28. The Bengals were given the ball returned tied 31-31 with six mins left, improbably transformed a 3rd and 27 shot play to JaMarr Chase, and were given into area purpose range. A loopy series of activities that blanketed consecutive Chiefs consequences on 4th and purpose on the 1-backyard line allowed the Bengals, who have been looking to rating a landing to save you Mahomes from handiest desiring a area purpose to pressure extra time, to as a substitute run the clock down and kick the triumphing area purpose at 0:00.
2022 AFC Championship: Pretty tons touched upon withinside the preceding phase with Mahomes` interceptions, however lest we overlook Kansas City turned into 5 yards farfar from triumphing on the cease of regulation. The Bengals protection sacked Mahomes two times, inflicting a fumble on the second one sack, and the Chiefs needed to accept extra time.
2022 everyday season: In addition to the aforementioned Kelce fumble, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker neglected a recreation-tying area purpose, giving Cincinnati the ball returned with three:19 left. After Kansas City exhausted its timeouts, Joe Burrow transformed a 3rd and five byskip to Ja`Marr Chase, then on the alternative facet of the 2-minute caution made a 3rd and eleven throw to Tee Higgins to seal the deal.
The Bengals’ winning history against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, explained
Kansas Citys protection has been no in shape for the Bengals offense If theres any indication of 1 unit dominating the opposition, its the Bengals offense in opposition to the Chiefs protection. Cincinnati has averaged 421 yards, scoring on 17 in their 27 possessions for a median of three.26 factors consistent with power. If you are taking out their cease-of-recreation kneeldown power on the cease of this years everyday season win theyre scoring at a brilliant 65.three% clip. Theyve additionally transformed 17 of 33 0.33-down tries and feature had an same or better Expected Points Added (EPA) consistent with play than Kansas City`s offense in every recreation.
Joe Burrow has finished seventy eight of 108 passes (72.2%) for 982 yards, eight touchdowns (plus 1 rushing), and simply 1 interception. Star receiver Ja`Marr Chase has a mixed 24 catches for 417 yards and four touchdowns, which includes an obscene eleven/266/three statline withinside the 2021 everyday season encounter. Running backs Semaje Perine and Joe Mixon have had 100+ scrimmage backyard performances, and most significantly the offensive line has handiest allowed sacks and 7 QB hits withinside the ultimate games.
Even if Mahomes turned into healthy, the winning query beforehand of this Sundays matchup have to be whether or not the Chiefs protection can successfully sluggish down Joe Burrow and company, due to the fact up up to now theyve established incapable of doing so.
The harm to Mahomesankle will nearly sincerely effect this years AFC title, however up up to now its clean that Cincinnati and Kansas City are well-matched groups with little or no to split them. So far, that “little or no” has all been in Cincinnatis favor. If records is a guide, Mahomesankle be damned, were in for any other dramatic finishing at Burrowhead Arrowhead.
