NFL Week-2, Why intermediate passing sport, blitz pickup will decide whether or not Vikings or 49ers transfer to 2-0

The margins between profitable and dropping within the Nationwide Soccer League might be razor skinny.

That is why it is time to take a better take a look at one in all Week 2’s greatest showdowns between a few 1-0 groups, the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings. We’ll study the 2 greatest matchups, one on both sides of the soccer, and determine who has the benefit every in every key space. Let’s get to it.

WARNING: we’re coming into Week 2, so Week 1 and up to date, previous seasons are all we’ve got to look again on so far as knowledge factors go

Vikings offense vs. 49ers protection

New Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold, who was Brock Purdy’s 49ers backup in 2023, seemed like a brand new man in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense throughout their 28-6 Week 1 highway win on the New York Giants. He accomplished 19 of his 24 passes, together with a career-high 12 in a row to start out the sport, for 208 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. His 79.2% completion was the third-best in Week 1, he was solely sacked as soon as and his sole interception got here on a tipped go. One sport is an extremely small pattern measurement, however Darnold performed like top-five quarterback amongst Week 1 passers as his 113.2 passer score was the fifth-best within the NFL.

His high goal, 2022 NFL Offensive Participant of the Yr Justin Jefferson, is definitely a top-five huge receiver in soccer. He turned simply the third participant all-time to whole no less than 1,000 receiving yards (1,074) whereas enjoying in 10 or fewer video games. Since his dominant OPOY run in 2022, Jefferson has been elite at separating and producing on intermediate throws, passes touring 10 to 19 yards by means of the air, rating top-five in targets (93), catches (62) and receiving yards (1,129) in that span. 

Justin Jefferson intermediate space receiving
since 2022

* Intermediate Space= 10-19 yards

** Jefferson received the 2022 NFL Offensive Participant of the Yr award

On the flip aspect, the 49ers have been one of many NFL’s finest 5 models at defending intermediate passes due to All-Professional linebacker Fred Warner and All-Professional security Talanoa Hufanga patrolling the center of the sector. 

San Francisco 49ers intermediate space go protection
Since 2022

Per NFL Professional Insights

An enormous consider figuring out which aspect has the sting might be answered by a easy query: Will Darnold have sufficient time to throw? He was solely sacked as soon as regardless of being below stress on 42.3% of his dropbacks on the Giants, the fourth-highest charge in Week 1. Darnold being below stress wasn’t a problem final week as a result of he accomplished all 5 of his passes towards the blitz for 81 yards and a landing, per NFL Professional’s Insights. He bought the ball out with 2.46 seconds common time to throw towards the blitz, the Twelfth-fastest within the NFL in Week 1. Nonetheless, San Francisco hasn’t blitzed a lot in any respect since new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen joined Shanahan’s employees as a defensive assistant in 2022 with 22.5% blitz charge, the eighth-lowest in soccer. 

With out the benefit of with the ability to shortly diagnose a protection with much less gamers dropped again in protection, Darnold could wrestle to get the soccer out to Jefferson as a lot as wanted to make sure victory.

Edge: 49ers

49ers offense vs. Vikings protection

Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is infamous for his aggressive blitz schemes. No different group blitzed greater than the Vikings’ 50.7% charge final season, however they solely had a quarterback stress ratee of 32.1%, twenty seventh within the NFL. Flores’ bunch went towards tendency in Week 1 on the Giants, most likely as a result of they felt like they did not have to throw the kitchen sink on the struggling Daniel Jones, a participant Minnesota admitting feeling sorry for. 

They blitzed on solely 22.4% of the Giants’ dropbacks, twenty first within the league in Week 1. Going through a beleaguered New York offensive line, Minnesota generated a quarterback stress charge of 40.8%, the sixth-highest of Week 1 with 20 quarterback pressures, the third-highest of any group final week. Their 5 sacks have been the second-most of any group, trailing solely the Dallas Cowboys’ six towards a equally struggling Deshaun Watson. 

Ought to Flores return to his blitz-happy methods towards the defending NFC champions, it may play into the 49ers’ respective hand. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy tore up Flores’ blitz in Week 7 final season, finishing 14 of 16 throws towards it for 183 yards and a landing, whereas going through the blitz on over half (51.5%) of his dropbacks, per NFL Professional Insights. There are such a lot of straightforward solutions towards the blitz for Purdy from Deebo Samuel to Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffery (if wholesome).  Though, one in all his two incompletions towards Flores’ blitz final season was an interception on a play that started at midfield. Cornerback Camryn Bynum intercepted the go with solely 5:36 left within the sport and Minnesota up 5, 22-17. The Vikings ended up escaping with a victory that evening by the identical rating. 

If McCaffrey does not play, and the Vikings protection does not have to respect the specter of Jordan Mason within the passing sport like Minnesota would for CMC, the Vikings have an opportunity. That in fact can be probably reliant on an premature Purdy interception, which is a low stakes proposition.

Edge: 49ers

Verdict: 49ers however proceed with warning

Certain, the 49ers are 5.5-point highway favorites on Sunday in Minnesota, per SportsLine Consensus Odds, however bizarre stuff appears to occur to them after they play on the highway on the Vikings. The have misplaced seven video games in a row on the Vikings’ turf with their final highway win in Minnesota coming in a 20-17 Week 15 matchup that featured Steve Younger (49ers) versus Wealthy Gannon (Vikings) because the beginning quarterbacks that day. The seven-game dropping streak in Minnesota is the 49ers’ longest energetic highway dropping streak for the franchise right now. Huge receiver Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ 2023 first-round decide, registered career-highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (123) and receiving touchdowns (two) in Minnesota’s 22-17 Week 7 win on this matchup final yr with Jefferson out with an harm.

San Francisco actually has the matchups to prevail on Sunday and enhance to 2-0, however a Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones revenge sport with a wholesome Justin Jefferson may doubtlessly show to be more durable than anticipated. Jones ran for 108 speeding yards on 18 carries for a six yards per carry common within the Inexperienced Bay Packers’ 24-21 NFC Divisional Spherical loss on the 49ers in January. Minnesota has sufficient credible matchups, plus some voodoo (for those who imagine in superstitious issues), when this matchup takes place at U.S. Financial institution Stadium. Sunday afternoon between these two squads needs to be high tier programming within the NFL’s 1 p.m. ET Week 2 slate.