While Wild Card weekend lived as much as the call for the NFL, the divisional spherical had much less drama and excitement. The Philadelphia Eagles blew out the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Bengals managed the Buffalo Bills. The Kansas City Chiefs needed to keep on in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars after Patrick Mahomes were given hurt, even as protection dominated the day with the San Francisco 49ers up finishing the Dallas Cowboys in a low-scoring affair.
Prior to the divisional spherical, we shared with you that one analytics information factor had anticipated the primary six video games of the playoffs. While the DVOA scores (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) had been now no longer capable of being ideal in the course of the divisional spherical, it did are expecting 3 of the 4 video games correctly:
- Philadelphia Eagles (third) beat the New York Giants (21st)
- San Francisco 49ers (2d) beat the Dallas Cowboys (6th)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4th) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (13th)
Where DVOA did not be predictive changed into the Cincinnati Bengals (5th) defeating the Buffalo Bills (1st). The Bills dropping to a crew that had simply over 1/2 of the DVOA (18.1% to 35%) changed into shocking.
To be clear, DVOA isnt ideal nor wouldn’t it not declare to are expecting the winners of sure video games. Too many variables that can’t be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a position in a one-recreation sample. We nearly noticed how a prime damage, to Patrick Mahomes, allowed the Jaguars to live in a recreation that the information stated shouldnt be near.
Given the accuracy of DVOA up to now withinside the playoffs (predicting nine of 10 video games), we can`t assist however test what it’d train us approximately championship video games this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs vs the Cincinnati Bengals
- Overall DVOA: Kansas City 4th vs Cincinnati 5th
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 1st vs Cincinnati 4th
- Defensive DVOA: Cincinnati eleventh vs Kansas City 17th
Edge: Chiefs – Two superb offenses and lesser defenses collide on this matchup. DVOA can`t don’t forget whether or not Mahomes is restricted however that factor, obviously, may want to play a massive position in bringing the Chiefs pinnacle-ranked offense down
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
Overall DVOA: San Francisco 2d vs Philadelphia third
Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia third vs San Francisco 6th
Defensive DVOA: San Francisco 1st vs Philadelphia 6th
Edge: 49ers – Another very near matchup wherein each groups are pinnacle-10 on each offense and protection, main to their 2d and 1/3 scores overall. The distinction is that the Niners protection has a bigger hole than the Eagles offense does.
If what occurred in the course of Wild Card weekend and the divisional spherical maintains this week, we’re going to see very carefully contested video games this Sunday. The Mahomes damage throws the AFC matchup withinside the air however, assuming he’s near normal, the pinnacle seed withinside the AFC will head to the Super Bowl even as the 2d-seeded 49ers trip their protection to the massive recreation.
While DVOA changed into predictive 90% of the time up to now this yr, a short appearance again at closing yr gives a counterpoint for its predictive nature. The Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams had been the fifth-rated crew even as the Bengals had been all of the manner down at 17. The 4 highest-rated groups didn`t even make it to the championship video games closing season.
Will DVOA have an ideal weekend once more after a hiccup closing week or will Mahomes damage, Joe Burrows dominance over Kansas City, Philadelphias offense or Brock Purdy`s obstacles carry the analytics predictions go into reverse to earth?
