Women and gents, welcome to Season 12 of my NFL picks.
Since that is the primary week of the 2024 season, we’ll do my favourite Week 1 train, which is me telling you ways my offseason went. Should you’re new right here, that is usually the a part of my picks that everybody skips over attributable to the truth that my life is boring. Properly, besides this yr, and that is as a result of my spouse and I welcomed a brand new child.
Does that imply I have not slept in three months? Sure.
Does that imply I can now odor colours? I imagine that is additionally a sure.
Will the child in some way enhance my NFL picks? At this level, that is nonetheless up within the air, however my principle is sure.
I spent a superb chunk of the offseason on paternity go away, and 90% of that was spent learning the brand new NFL kickoff rule. And let me simply say, in addition to altering diapers, there’s nothing I do know extra about than the brand new kickoff rule. And now that I do know every little thing there may be to know in regards to the new kickoff rule, I’ve absolutely uncovered all of the secrets and techniques of the NFL and I now know who’s going to win the Tremendous Bowl.
So who’s it going to be?
That is a fantastic query, and also you can discover the reply by clicking right here to see my predictions for your complete 2024 NFL season. Should you click on over, you may see my ultimate report prediction for all 32 groups plus who I am selecting to make the playoffs and who I am taking to win the Tremendous Bowl in New Orleans.
Should you determine to click on over to learn my predictions, we’ll wait so that you can get again earlier than shifting on.
All proper, let’s get to the Week 1 picks.
NFL Week 1 Picks
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
The final time we noticed these two groups on the sphere collectively got here in January within the AFC Championship sport. Sure, the Chiefs ended up profitable, however I largely attribute that to the truth that the Ravens went into the sport with probably the worst offensive sport plan in NFL historical past. I do know that feels like an exaggeration, particularly when you think about the NFL has existed since 1920, however I’m not going to be satisfied in any other case.
The Ravens completed the 2023 season with the highest speeding offense within the NFL, so working the ball towards the Chiefs would have made some sense, however nope, however they determined to do the other. Within the 17-10 loss, the Ravens working backs received SIX CARRIES. SIX. Three of these carries got here within the first quarter for 16 yards, however apparently, averaging 5.3 yards per rush wasn’t ok, as a result of the Ravens shut their run sport down after that and as an alternative determined to attempt to win the sport by having Lamar Jackson throw the ball 37 instances.
Not working the ball made zero sense. This is able to be like if Steph Curry hit 5 3-pointers within the first quarter of a playoff sport, however then Steve Kerr requested him to not shoot anymore 3s for the remainder of the sport. Individuals at residence could be scratching their heads, similar to I used to be for the ultimate three quarters of Ravens vs. Chiefs. I used to be scratching so onerous that I am fairly positive I nonetheless have claw marks on my scalp.
The explanation I am mentioning all of it’s because Baltimore shouldn’t be going to make the identical mistake once more. The Ravens already had one of the best speeding offense within the NFL final yr and so they made it higher this yr by including DERRICK HENRY. Since he was taking part in for a foul Titans crew final yr, you may not have observed that he nonetheless completed with the second-most speeding yards within the NFL despite the fact that each crew was loading the field to cease him.
Henry has had a dominating NFL profession, and there isn’t any crew he is steamrolled greater than the Chiefs. The previous Titans star has averaged 112 yards per sport towards Kansas Metropolis, which is the MOST he is averaged towards ANY crew in his profession.
I hate selecting towards the Chiefs, as a result of they nearly all the time make me look silly each time I do it, however I’ll do it right here. The Ravens are going to be out for revenge, and if there’s one occasion the place the Chiefs are literally beatable, it is on this precise scenario: The Chiefs are simply 5-5 in residence prime-time video games towards non-divisional opponents since Mahomes’ first full-year as a starter in 2018.
The decide: Ravens 23-20 over Chiefs
8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)
For the primary time ever, the NFL is taking part in a sport in Brazil. I as soon as performed an additional in a film that befell in Brazil (“Quick 5”), and because the solely member of the NFL media who’s carried out that, I imagine that makes me the foremost skilled on each the NFL and Brazil. And simply in case you are questioning, I performed a practice passenger.
I do not wish to say that is one of the best that anybody has performed a practice passenger, nevertheless it needs to be close to the highest.
Anyway, the one factor about this sport is that it is being completely proven on Peacock. If you do not have a Peacock subscription, don’t be concerned, you’ll be able to simply comply with alongside on X, aka the social media web site previously often called Twitter. OK, nope, appears to be like like you’ll be able to’t do this, as a result of Brazil has banned X.
OK, so it appears to be like like we’re simply all going to be listening to this sport on the radio collectively. It will likely be like outdated instances.
On paper, the most important mismatch on this sport looks like Jordan Love towards the Eagles secondary. Love caught fireplace over the ultimate 10 video games of final season, and now, he’ll be dealing with an Eagles protection that gave up the the second-most passing yards within the NFL final season. The Eagles did draft two rookies this yr in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, however there isn’t any approach to know the way a lot they’re really going to assist till they get on the sphere. The one factor I’ll say is that they cannot be any worse than what Philadelphia had final season, in order that looks as if a small plus for the Eagles.
For me, the most important change on this sport is at working again. The Packers added Josh Jacobs whereas the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley this offseason. I believe Barkley goes to have the larger affect on this sport and that is largely as a result of the Packers protection goes to should deal with not getting burned by A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert, which ought to give Barkley some severe room to run. Then again, in the event that they deal with stopping the run, the Brown and Smith might have an enormous night time.
Additionally, the one factor I do not like in regards to the Packers is that they’re going to be going into Friday’s sport with a kicker who’s by no means tried a area objective in a regular-season sport. I do not belief rookie kickers, however I do belief Jake Elliott, so I am going to take the Eagles by three.
The decide: Eagles 27-24 over Packers
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I’ve determined that for this sport, I’ll decide the crew that has the quarterback who I belief extra, and let me simply let you know, I’ve spent 51 straight hours attempting to determine who that’s and I’ve gotten nowhere.
On Atlanta’s facet, now we have a 36-year-old coming off a torn Achilles and on Pittsburgh’s facet, now we have a former Tremendous Bowl-winning quarterback who has apparently forgotten how you can play soccer.
Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson? Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins? Each quarterbacks had been drafted in 2012 and this may really mark the primary time in NFL historical past that two quarterbacks with at the least 12 years of expertise are taking part in one another in a debut sport for a brand new crew.
Should you’re questioning why I simply gave you that enjoyable reality, it was my means of stalling till I might determine which quarterback I appreciated higher on this sport, and I am beginning to assume the reply is Cousins.
Cousins does not look like a man who usually holds grudges or performs with a chip on his shoulder, however I really feel like he’ll be taking part in with one this yr after watching the Falcons draft Michael Penix Jr. If Cousins does not need Falcons followers calling for him to be benched by the point Week 2 rolls round, then he will should have an enormous season, so the stress’s going to be on straight away. If Cousins comes out of the gate and has an unpleasant sport towards the Steelers, followers in Atlanta will possible be calling for Penix to start out.
Should you’re coming off a torn Achilles, your worst nightmare is being compelled to face T.J. Watt in your first sport again, and that is precisely what’s occurring on this sport. I might not wish to be Cousins this week. That being mentioned, the Falcons have the weapons for Cousins to succeed and though he may not have an enormous sport on Sunday, I do assume he does simply sufficient to drag Atlanta to a win.
The decide: Falcons 20-17 over Steelers
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
When the primary general decide is beginning a sport in Week 1, the sensible technique is to choose towards him. Because the 2003 season, there have been 15 quarterbacks taken with the highest decide and so they’ve gone 0-14-1 of their debut sport. If you consider it, the stat should not be that stunning. The highest decide often goes to the worst crew within the league and that crew is sort of all the time an underdog in Week 1. Nonetheless, that is not the scenario this yr. The highest decide DIDN’T go to the worst crew within the league as a result of the worst crew (Carolina) traded the decide away to the Bears, who’re really an honest crew.
For one, Williams is about to develop into the primary QB ever drafted within the high 5 to inherit TWO receivers who’re each coming off a 1,200-yard receiving season (Keenan Allen and DJ Moore). To not point out, the Bears even have Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. No Bears QB has EVER thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, nevertheless it looks like Williams would possibly really be capable to hit that quantity this yr.
Defensively, do not sleep on the Bears (or is it hibernate?)
Beginning in Week 10 final season, the Bears went 5-3 down the stretch, and an enormous cause for that’s as a result of they solely surrendered 17.1 level per sport, which was the fewest factors by any protection within the NFL from Week 10 via Week 18.
Look, I really assume the Titans are going to be higher than most individuals anticipate this yr, however per custom, I’ve to take the Bears, as a result of they had been on “Exhausting Knocks” crew this yr and HBO all the time in some way brainwashes me into considering that the “Exhausting Knocks” crew goes to be good.
The decide: Bears 19-16 over Titans
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This sport is being performed in Miami, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of nobody has embraced the South Seashore life-style greater than Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
The man on the left cannot beat good groups and might’t win large playoff video games, however the man on the suitable goes to guide the Dolphins straight to the Tremendous Bowl. You may’t decide towards the man on the suitable, which is sweet information for me, as a result of I do not plan on selecting towards Mike McDaniel anytime quickly, as a result of he’s basically unbeatable throughout the first few weeks of the season.
Since McDaniel took over as Miami’s coach in 2022, the Dolphins have gone 6-0 throughout the first three weeks of the season and so they’ve outscored their opponents by a median of 13 factors per sport in these wins.
The Dolphins have a speedy offense that is robust to organize for in case you do not see it typically, and the Jaguars positively do not see it typically.
So now we have a speedy Dolphins offense that will likely be going up towards a Jaguars offense which may get known as for 57 delay-of-game penalties as a result of nobody appears to know who will likely be calling the offensive performs but.
The sport is simply days away, Doug! It’s worthwhile to determine.
Each quarterbacks on this sport (Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence) received large contract extensions this offseason, which implies the loser of this sport goes to immediately be getting ripped for not residing as much as his contract.
I already mentioned I will not be selecting towards McDaniel, which implies I am taking the Dolphins. And look, I do not wish to pour it on right here, however Kevin Harlan, Trent Inexperienced and Melanie Collins will likely be calling this sport for CBS and McDaniel has by no means misplaced with that trio working the sport. Because the begin of the 2022 season, the Dolphins are 7-0 and have averaged 38.0 factors per sport with Kevin, Trent and Melanie round.
Stephen Ross would possibly wish to take into consideration hiring these three as Miami’s everlasting asserting crew.
The decide: Dolphins 34-24 over Jaguars
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)
This sport feels prefer it could possibly be an NFC Championship preview, and I am not simply saying that as a result of that is precisely what I predicted in my 2024 season preview, which you’ll be able to learn right here. OK, to be sincere, I did simply say that as a result of it was in my preview. I wanted to plug it once more.
Anyway, in case you learn that preview, you may discover that I am very excessive on each of those groups:
- I’ve the Rams ending with one of the best report within the NFC
- I’ve Jared Goff as my dark-horse MVP candidate
- I’ve considered one of these groups within the Tremendous Bowl
I like each of those groups this yr and I don’t wish to decide this sport as a result of I do not wish to be compelled to choose one over the opposite. It is like selecting one baby over the opposite, which is a cliche that truly is sensible to me now that I’ve two children.
Matthew Stafford is returning to Detroit for the second time in eight months to play a sport, and this time, I really assume he will win. The largest factor working within the Rams’ favor is that everybody appears to be wholesome, which wasn’t all the time the case final season. There have been solely eight video games final yr the place the Rams had Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams on the sphere on the similar time. In these video games, the Rams went 6-2 and Stafford threw 18 landing passes in comparison with simply three interceptions.
After shedding to the Lions throughout final yr’s playoffs, I’ve to assume Stafford would like to lastly get a win IN Detroit, which he nonetheless hasn’t carried out since being traded from the Motor Metropolis to Los Angeles again in 2021.
The decide: Rams 30-27 over Lions
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC)
The NFL scheduling division is clearly attempting to make it possible for Aaron Rodgers experiences some PTSD in Week 1, as a result of that is they solely cause they’d schedule this sport.
- Final yr, the Jets opened the season on Monday night time and Rodgers lasted solely 5 snaps earlier than he tore his Achilles after taking successful from Buffalo’s Leonard Floyd.
- This yr, the Jets will as soon as once more open the season on Monday night time and Rodgers will as soon as once more be dealing with Floyd, who left the Payments to signal with the 49ers in March.
Rodgers has to face the SAME GUY, within the SAME WEEK, on the SAME DAY, on the SAME TIME. Now I do know why he does all of that Ayahuasca.
After Rodgers received injured, most individuals stopped listening to the Jets, so you might not know that they really ended up having among the best defenses within the NFL final yr. The Jets gave up the second-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest complete yards within the league in 2023.
To not point out, if anybody is aware of how you can decelerate Kyle Shanahan’s offense, it is Jets coach Robert Saleh, who served because the 49ers defensive coordinator for 4 seasons beneath Shanahan (2017-20).
Not solely will the Jets protection possible have some confidence, nevertheless it’s going up towards a 49ers offense that has been going by loads of drama this offseason: Ricky Pearsall will not be taking part in, Brandon Aiyuk missed all of coaching camp earlier than lastly signing his extension final week and let’s not overlook about Trent Williams, who missed ALL OF TRAINING CAMP, earlier than FINALLY ending his holdout on Tuesday. Positive, the All-Professional deal with would possibly go well with up for the opener, however even when he performs, he possible will not be in nice soccer form simply but.
Additionally, let’s not overlook that Rodgers is essentially the most vindictive individual on the planet, and there is a 100% likelihood he nonetheless holds a grudge towards the 49ers for not drafting him in 2005.
If the sport was on a Sunday, I’d take the 49ers, nevertheless it’s on a Monday and Aaron Rodgers in some way does not lose on “Monday Evening Soccer.” He is gained 10 straight Monday begins and he might tie the NFL report of 11 if the Jets beat the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
The decide: Jets 23-20 over 49ers
NFL Week 1 picks: All the remainder
Payments 24-16 over Cardinals
Bengals 23-13 over Patriots
Texans 24-17 over Colts
Saints 16-13 over Panthers
Giants 17-13 over Vikings
Chargers 20-16 over Raiders
Seahawks 27-20 over Broncos
Cowboys -27-24 over Browns
Buccaneers 20-13 over Commanders
Final Week
Greatest decide: Should you simply learn by these picks whereas considering, “Wow, I want I might learn this man daily,” you are in luck, as a result of you’ll be able to! I additionally write the every day NFL publication right here at CBSSports.com and you’ll be able to subscribe by clicking right here and getting into your e mail handle. And do not be egocentric, be at liberty to enroll everybody you realize. You may as well comply with me on the social media platform previously often called Twitter right here. By the way in which, that is often the half the place I brag to you about my finest decide from the previous week, however since there weren’t any regular-season video games final week, meaning there isn’t any finest decide for this part.
Worst decide: Though I am going to have loads of “worst picks” for this part beginning subsequent week, I’ve nothing for you this week. Really, wait, sure I do. Since that is the worst decide part, that is the right time to let you know about my worst choice from the offseason: I used to be assigned to place the child’s pajamas on one night time and I put the pajamas on, however forgot the diaper. The infant should have identified, as a result of lower than 5 minutes later, he went to the lavatory in his diaperless state. I’ve now been banned from placing on the child’s pajamas.
Remaining 2023 picks report (together with playoffs)
Straight-up: 170-115
Towards the unfold: 146-129-10