SEC College football picks, odds in Week 3: Conference action heating up means more upsets possible
The SEC made historical past once more this week as the primary convention ever to have six groups ranked within the high seven spots of the AP High 25. Related information shall be damaged on this new period of school soccer, the place the SEC and Massive Ten’s 34 groups rule the game.
That additionally means huge groups might fall extra typically, significantly in convention motion. The docket this week is mild on potential upsets within the SEC, although there’s at all times a Northern Illinois lurking round able to shock the world. A number of groups face their hardest exams but, together with No. 5 Ole Miss and No. 6 Missouri, in Week 3.
Most fascinating SEC video games
ESPN’s GameDay shall be in Columbia, South Carolina, for Saturday’s No. 16 LSU vs. South Carolina sport, however that is not my sport of the week within the SEC. Texas A&M at Florida is intriguing for causes not totally necessary to the nationwide dialog, however as a result of it is darn close to sink-or-swim for the Gators.
Billy Napier is already on the most popular seat within the nation, however he was supplied a ray of hope final week when freshman quarterback DJ Lagway sizzled in The Swamp for his debut as a starter. Nevertheless, Napier mentioned he might facet with senior Graham Mertz if he is cleared from concussion protocol. Taking part in each quarterbacks vs. the Aggies looks as if a great way to mess up a great factor. Why complicate issues? Nothing comes simple for the Gator trustworthy, it appears.
Listed below are the rankings for this week’s SEC video games:
- Texas A&M at Florida
- No. 16 LSU at South Carolina
- No. 24 Boston School at No. 6 Missouri
- No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin
- No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky
- Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma
- No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest
- Vanderbilt at Georgia State
- Toledo at Mississippi State
- UAB at Arkansas
- New Mexico at Auburn
- UTSA at No. 2 Texas
- Kent State at No. 7 Tennessee
Only a SECond
Earlier than we transfer on to this week’s SEC picks, listed here are just a few fascinating notes to get you prepared for Saturday:
- Tennessee is a 47.5-point favourite towards Kent State, this system’s largest level unfold towards an FBS workforce since 1996, when Peyton Manning was the quarterback towards UNLV.
- Missouri is favored this week by 15-plus factors towards a ranked workforce for the primary time in 30 years.
- Alabama’s successful streak of 53 video games towards unranked nonconference groups is the longest since Miami gained 62 straight from 1985-1996.
- Texas A&M enters Saturday’s journey to Florida on a 10-game street shedding streak, the longest in program historical past.
Picks
Straight up: 22-3 | Towards the unfold: 12-8
*Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds
No. 16 LSU at South Carolina
Can South Carolina stress LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier? LSU has not allowed a sack this season however the Gamecocks are second within the nation with 10 sacks. Kyle Kennard is already as much as 3.5 sacks this season. Nussmeier has been stellar, selecting up the place Jayden Daniels left off with a Heisman run final season and has thrown for 300-plus yards in three profession begins. We do have questions concerning the offense’s consistency. The Tigers trailed Nicholls State within the second quarter final week and appeared bent towards the passing sport. LSU ranks 116th in speeding (88.5 yards per sport). South Carolina wants turnovers and LaNorris Sellers to select up the manufacturing by means of the air (136.5 yards per sport) to drag off this system’s first win since 1994 towards the Bayou Bengals. Choose: LSU -6.5
No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky
Kentucky imploded final week, managing simply 183 yards whereas permitting 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in a 31-6 house loss to South Carolina. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff was clearly annoyed by the stress, finishing solely 3 of 10 passes for 30 yards and an interception earlier than backup Gavin Wimsatt changed him within the sport. Vandagriff, a switch from Georgia, faces his former workforce this week. He’ll possible have nightmares standing within the pocket because the Bulldogs’ defensive entrance closes round him. Georgia’s longest successful streak vs. an SEC workforce is towards Kentucky, which has misplaced 14 straight video games to the Bulldogs with a mean margin of victory of 19 factors. Choose: Georgia -18
Texas A&M at Florida
Florida’s offense acquired a much-needed spark in Lagway’s debut final week, but when Graham Mertz returns from concussion protocol, Napier appears intent on beginning the senior over the freshman. Would possibly that be a mistake? Lagway set a faculty file for a real freshman with 456 passing yards within the 45-7 win towards FCS Samford. Napier mentioned he’ll use each quarterbacks if Mertz is on the market. Texas A&M acquired its working backs going final week, speeding for 333 yards, essentially the most for the Aggies since 2018, however the speeding protection has been subpar (189 yards per sport). Can Conner Weigman outduel Florida’s quarterbacks? Not if Lagway performs a lot of the snaps. Choose: Florida +4
No. 24 Boston School at No. 6 Missouri
Boston School could make historical past on Saturday. An upset at Missouri would make the Eagles solely the third workforce within the final 30 years to beat two high 10 groups within the first three weeks of the season. Mizzou figures to be far more difficult than Florida State, nevertheless. The Tigers’ protection has but to permit some extent this season, the primary FBS workforce to take action within the first two weeks of the season since 2019. The important thing for BC is to gradual the tempo and successfully use quarterback Thomas Castellanos on designed runs, simply because it did within the win vs. FSU. Boston School’s protection has been strong, limiting groups to an unimaginable 14.8% conversion fee on third downs. Mizzou is extra explosive and has the higher protection, however this would be the Tigers’ first problem after blowing out Buffalo and FCS Murray State. The Tigers win their nineteenth straight nonconference sport at house, a program file. Choose: Boston School +17.5
No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin
Wisconsin seems to nonetheless be affected by an extended string of hiccups at quarterback within the Luke Fickell period. Miami switch Tyler Van Dyke hasn’t fairly been the spark many anticipated; he did not throw a landing till Week 2. Alabama wanted a 28-point outburst within the fourth quarter after struggling to eclipse 3.5 yards per play by means of three quarters to drag away from USF final week. Jalen Milroe is far more dynamic at quarterback, and the Tide have many extra receivers, together with freshman phenom Ryan Williams, for the Badgers to adequately problem for a win inside Camp Randall Stadium, the place they’re 51-2 of their final 53 nonconference house video games. If Wisconsin pulls the upset, it does so with turnovers and a passing offense that assaults the Tide’s early-season inconsistencies within the defensive backfield. Choose: Alabama -7
Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma
Oklahoma struggled to place away Houston final week in an offensive slog, recording solely 249 yards in a 16-12 win. The important thing towards Tulane is moving into the purple zone, the place Jackson Arnold ranks third within the nation in passing touchdowns with six. Tulane has been a menace to Massive 12 groups in recent times, pushing Kansas State to the restrict final week and upsetting the Wildcats in 2022. The Inexperienced Wave practically upset the Sooners in a 40-35 loss in 2021. Tulane is 10-2 towards the unfold in its final 12 street video games and 10-0 straight-up since 2002. This workforce is completely different, however the DNA in this system stays below first-year coach Jon Sumrall. The Sooners win, however not by two touchdowns.. Choose: Tulane -14
UAB at Arkansas
Shock, shock: Arkansas’ offense is light-years higher than it was a yr in the past. Bobby Petrino is a magician when he is allowed to work alone with an offense, however can the Hogs minimize down on the errors that value them in a double-overtime loss final week at nationally-ranked Oklahoma State? Arkansas dedicated three turnovers, together with a choose six, and misplaced regardless of outgaining the Cowboys by practically 300 yards and speeding for 232 yards. UAB has been a catastrophe below Trent Dilfer. The Blazers misplaced to former UAB interim coach Bryant Vincent final week in a 32-6 blowout at ULM. Choose: Arkansas -22
No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest
The Rebels are an offensive juggernaut, main the FBS in level differential (+125), the most effective begin by any workforce since 2015 (additionally Ole Miss). The Rebels will rating loads of factors to win Saturday of their first street sport, however historical past exhibits Lane Kiffin’s workforce normally underperforms away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels averaged 44.1 factors at house and solely 24.5 away from house final season.. Choose: Wake Forest +22.5
UTSA at No. 2 Texas
This might get ugly shortly. Texas is rolling and UTSA isn’t what it was a yr or two in the past, when it was the category of Convention USA. The Roadrunners suffered their largest loss in 5 years final week in a 49-10 demolition at Texas State. This an ideal pad-your-stats and rest-in-the-second-half sport for Quinn Ewers, who’s coming off the primary back-to-back, three-touchdown efficiency of his profession. The Longhorns’ protection is permitting solely 6.0 factors per sport, the bottom complete since 1982. Choose: Texas -29.5
Vanderbilt at Georgia State
Diego Pavia would not have to throw the ball to successfully transfer Vanderbilt’s offense, however it could be good to see him get right into a rhythm with 15 or extra makes an attempt towards Georgia State, which proved to be powerful towards Georgia Tech in Week 1. Georgia State’s Freddie Brock is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Choose: Vanderbilt -7.5
New Mexico at Auburn
Auburn had one of many extra disappointing performances within the SEC final week in its 21-14 house loss to Cal. Payton Thorne threw 4 interceptions and the offensive line struggled to maintain a clear pocket. The Tigers will pounce on an outmatched Lobos workforce. Choose: New Mexico +28
Toledo at Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s line of defense was pushed round final week in its 30-23 loss at Arizona State. Toledo can rating in bunches, averaging 46 factors per sport, however the speeding offense is not essentially stellar (125 yards per sport). The Bulldogs bounce again at house. Choose: Mississippi State -8
Kent State at No. 7 Tennessee
We found final week Tennessee can blow out opponents even when Nico Iamaleava is not at his greatest. The quarterback threw two interceptions and the Vols nonetheless cruised to a 51-10 win towards NC State, this system’s largest win towards a ranked workforce since 1990. Because it did two weeks in the past, Tennessee will do its injury within the first half and name off the canines at halftime. Choose: Kent State +47.5