NFL Week 3 picks: Cowboys stun Ravens, drop Baltimore to 0-3; Chargers shock Steelers; Saints roll previous Eagles
I do not often rush to judgment about any groups after watching them play simply two video games, however guys, I will be trustworthy, I do not suppose the Panthers are going to make the playoffs this yr, and I am not even fully satisfied they will win a recreation this season.
Apparently, their head coach agrees with me, as a result of he has determined to BENCH BRYCE YOUNG in favor of Andy Dalton. That is proper, the Panthers at the moment are attempting to save lots of their season by turning to Andrew Gregory Dalton. Usually, I might chortle on the considered that, however Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith are a mixed 10-0 to date this yr, so I am not going to chortle at that or something ever once more. The way in which this season goes, there is a 40% probability we will get Dalton vs. Gardner Minshew within the Tremendous Bowl.
Talking of these two, they’re going to really be going through one another this week. So who will I be taking? Let’s get to the picks and discover out.
NFL Week 3 Picks
Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
It is lastly taking place: The Malik Willis revenge recreation is right here. Though I am unsure we must always name this a revenge recreation as a result of the Titans really did Willis a favor by buying and selling him to a greater workforce. This may be like in case your partner filed for divorce, however discovered you a Brazilian supermodel so far after the divorce was finalized.
Willis was drafted by the Titans in 2022, however solely ended up beginning three video games for them over two seasons. The Titans ended up giving the beginning QB job to Will Levis, which has been a curler coaster trip to date, however on this case, the curler coaster has no brakes, is headed for a brick wall and the seat belts do not work.
The Titans are 0-2 this season, however they might be 2-0 in the event that they did not make the identical precise errors each week. In Week 1, they blew a 17-3 result in the Bears, and an enormous purpose is as a result of Levis threw arguably one of many worst decide sixes of all time.
Yikes.
The Titans additionally gave up a blocked punt in that recreation that the Bears returned for a landing.
Certainly, they realized one thing from Week 1 and would not let these SAME EXACT THINGS occur in Week 2, proper? RIGHT? Mistaken. In Week 2, Levis drove the Titans all the way down to the Jets’ six-yard line after which proceeded to make one other inexplicably dangerous mistake.
Let’s have a look at how Titans coach Brian Callahan felt about that fumble.
I am not a lip-reader, however I feel I undoubtedly noticed not less than one F-bomb in there.
As if that is not dangerous sufficient, the Titans additionally gave up ANOTHER blocked punt in Week 2. So should you’re scoring at dwelling, the Titans are actually 0-2 as a result of Levis is chargeable for two of the worst turnovers of the season they usually cannot defend their punter.
If the Titans can go per week with out giving up a blocked punt and if Levis can go per week with out making a dumb turnover, I really suppose they’ll win this recreation. The Titans protection does a fairly stable job of stopping the run and it will not be stunning in the event that they go all in on that, which can put the sport within the arms of Willis.
Though I hold mentioning Willis, there does appear to be a small probability that Jordan Love might play on Sunday. I do not suppose he’ll, however I will nonetheless be making two picks this week with one accounting for Love enjoying and the opposite assuming that Willis performs. And for the reason that remaining rating of each Titans recreation this season has been 24-17, I will simply go forward and assume that would be the remaining rating this week irrespective of who begins at quarterback for the Packers.
The decide: Titans 24-17 over Packers (If Jordan Love would not play)
The decide: Packers 24-17 over Titans (If Jordan Love does play)
L.A. Chargers (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Out of all of the video games in Week 3, this one intrigues me essentially the most, and that is largely as a result of I nonetheless don’t know what to make of both workforce. The factor in regards to the Steelers is that I am nonetheless not precisely positive how good they’re this yr. Sure, they’re 2-0, however they’ve one of many worst offenses within the NFL — they’ve solely scored one landing all season — and their protection has overwhelmed up on a rookie QB (Bo Nix) and a hobbled quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who was pressured to run an offense that he has no thought methods to run (Cousins prefers to play below middle, however he solely took ONE snap below middle towards the Steelers).
Then again, you will have the Chargers, who’ve gone full Jim Harbaugh (It’s best to by no means go full Jim Harbaugh). Earlier than the season began, the Chargers determined they have been going to tear up final yr’s playbook and implement a brand new playbook that will name for extra operating and fewer Justin Herbert. Normally, when you will have one of many high quarterbacks within the NFL, you do not design an offense that requires him for use much less, however the Chargers have finished precisely that, and IT’S ACTUALLY WORKING. The Chargers dashing assault has carried them to a 2-0 document.
There are solely 5 groups within the NFL which are averaging lower than 135 passing yards per recreation via two weeks and each of those groups are on that checklist. We’d solely see eight passes thrown on this whole recreation by each groups mixed.
One different factor these two groups have in widespread is that they’ve had two of the perfect defenses via the primary two weeks. The Steelers are giving up simply eight factors per recreation, which ranks second within the NFL, behind solely … yup, you guessed it: The Chargers (Los Angeles is simply surrendering 6.5 factors per recreation).
A part of me desires to foretell that the ultimate rating on this recreation is 8 to six.5, as a result of if any two groups can work out methods to make that occur, it is these two.
Each of those groups win by operating the ball, however each of their defenses can cease the run, so for me, meaning this comes all the way down to the workforce that has the higher quarterback. I don’t know who the Steelers will probably be throwing on the market this week, however I will take Justin Herbert it doesn’t matter what. The Chargers QB has a profession document of 18-0 when his protection surrenders below 20 factors (19 or much less), and I feel we’ll see that spectacular streak proceed on Sunday.
The decide: Chargers 17-13 over Steelers
Which picks are you able to make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs do you have to lock in now? Go to SportsLine to see which groups win and canopy the unfold, all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned properly over $7,000, and discover out.
Philadelphia (1-1) at New Orleans (2-0)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Guys, I’ll should admit it, I feel I may need been incorrect in regards to the Saints this yr. After they beat the Panthers in Week 1, I wasn’t impressed, as a result of everybody beats the Panthers. Heading into Week 2, I assumed they have been going to get a actuality verify towards the Cowboys, however apparently, the Saints do not do actuality checks. As an alternative, they’ve created an alternate actuality the place they’re the perfect workforce within the NFL and that is the fact we now all reside in.
Final week, I stated that if Derek Carr was an precise automotive that he’d be a 1989 Plymouth Sundance, but it surely seems he is really nearer to a McClaren and the Saints whole offense runs like a Bugatti.
Via two weeks, the Saints are on a historic scoring tempo: They’ve totaled 91 factors, which is the fourth most in NFL historical past via the primary two video games of a season. They’re additionally simply the fifth workforce in NFL historical past to attain 44 factors or extra in three straight video games (They scored 48 of their 2023 season finale). Their offense has principally been unstoppable: They’ve scored on 76% of their drives this season (16 of 21), which is an absurd price (It is the best scoring price by any workforce within the NFL since not less than 2000, surpassing groups just like the 2006 Colts and 2007 Patriots).
Principally, the Saints offense is firing on all cylinders, which is one thing you do not often see this early within the season. Most groups are often nonetheless attempting to work off the rust from the preseason, however within the Saints’ new alternate actuality that all of us reside, rust would not exist, not less than not for them.
The Saints offense has been clicking as a result of Carr has been on hearth and since Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable. If you’re going through an offense like this, it is good to have a while to arrange, however the Eagles will not have that. They should journey to New Orleans on a brief week after shedding on Monday night time and Philly will probably be bringing a protection that is surrendering practically 400 yards per recreation. When your protection is that enjoying that badly, the Saints are the final workforce you wish to be going through.
The decide: Saints 34-24 over Eagles
Houston (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
I do not know what the Texans offensive recreation plan goes to seem like this week, however I’ve a sense that Stefon Diggs goes to try to guarantee that he is an enormous a part of it. Diggs began his profession with the Vikings and this recreation will mark the primary time that he is performed in Minnesota as a member of the opposing workforce.
Diggs was with the Vikings from 2015 through 2019 earlier than he pressured a commerce to Buffalo. He was then with the Payments from 2020 through 2023 earlier than he pressured a commerce to the Texans, and I’ve a sense that if he would not get 20 passes thrown his manner this week, he would possibly power a commerce out of Houston.
The excellent news for Diggs is that he would possibly really be capable of have an enormous week, and that is largely as a result of the Vikings protection will not be targeted on him. The Vikings are going to be far more involved with Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards via two weeks with 126 yards per recreation (Diggs is averaging simply 35 yards per recreation).
Diggs wished out of Buffalo as a result of he apparently wasn’t completely happy about his position within the offense, though he led the workforce in targets final season. Now, he is caught in a offense the place he virtually actually will not be getting essentially the most targets. That being stated, the final time Diggs confronted the Vikings got here in 2022 and he caught 12 passes for 128 yards. I do not suppose we’ll see that sort of manufacturing from him on Sunday, however he would possibly get shut, particularly if he spends the whole recreation yelling at C.J. Stroud to throw him the ball on each play.
As for the Vikings, after beating the 49ers in Week 2, they’ve confirmed that they’ll play with anybody within the league. Nonetheless, they wanted a blocked punt, two second-half turnovers and a 97-yard landing from Justin Jefferson to beat San Francisco by simply six factors. They’re possible not going to have that many issues go their manner this week, so I’ll should take the Texans.
The decide: Texans 24-16 over Vikings
Baltimore (0-2) at Dallas (1-1)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
It is virtually becoming that the Ravens and Cowboys are enjoying one another this week as a result of I am fairly positive that they had the 2 most stunning losses of Week 2, and the losses have been stunning in very alternative ways. The Ravens blew a 10-point lead within the fourth quarter at dwelling, which I assume is not really all that stunning since nobody is best than the Ravens at blowing huge fourth-quarter leads.
As for the Cowboys, they acquired run out of their very own stadium in a recreation the place their protection forgot methods to play protection. The most important drawback for the Cowboys heading into Week 3 is that they’ve struggled to cease the run. Via two weeks, they’re surrendering a median of 141.5 yards per recreation on the bottom, and now, they should go up towards a Ravens workforce that LEADS the NFL in dashing (The Ravens are averaging 168 yards per recreation, which is spectacular when you think about that no different workforce is even averaging 152).
Though the Cowboys cannot cease the run, the Ravens protection can also be having its personal points. Via two weeks, the Ravens have given up the MOST passing yards within the NFL. Dak Prescott would possibly throw the ball 71 instances on Sunday. I’ve a sense he is actually going to be incomes his pay verify this week and if you’re making $60 million per yr, it’s a must to do quite a bit to earn your pay verify, so I count on Dak to have an enormous recreation.
With each defenses struggling, I feel what this implies is that we will get a very good old school shootout, and as somebody who loves a very good old school something, I am absolutely anticipating this to be essentially the most thrilling recreation of the week. I will not be shocked if this recreation comes all the way down to a subject purpose, which suggests I’ll take the workforce with the higher kicker, and proper now, I feel Brandon Aubrey is best than Justin Tucker.
The decide: Cowboys 30-27 over Ravens
NFL Week 3 picks: All the remainder
Jets 20-17 over Patriots
Raiders 20-17 over Panthers
Browns 24-13 over Giants
Bears 19-16 over Colts
Buccaneers 23-13 over Broncos
Seahawks 27-13 over Dolphins
49ers 27-17 over Rams
Lions 30-27 over Cardinals
Chiefs 31-20 over Falcons
Payments 30-20 over Jaguars
Bengals 24-17 over Commanders
Final Week
Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that the Steelers would beat the Broncos by seven factors, and guess what occurred? The Steelers beat the Broncos by precisely seven factors. When you will have a rookie quarterback going up towards a Mike Tomlin protection, the prediction virtually writes itself. So how did issues go for Bo Nix towards the Steelers? Glad you requested.
As you’ll be able to see, Nix acquired sacked by T.J. Watt’s shadow. I have not seen a shadow beat up anybody like that since final month after I watched the preview for the brand new Sonic film.
Am I sucking as much as my Paramount bosses by mentioning a Paramount film? Perhaps, however that is none of your corporation. Let’s transfer on.
Worst decide: My worst decide final week was each decide I made. My picks have been so dangerous that I printed out my Week 2 picks and set them on hearth in order that I by no means have to consider them once more. I went 7-8-1 towards the unfold, which was good in comparison with my horrid straight-up picks. I went 4-12 straight-up and I am placing all of the blame for that on cats. I picked three cat groups to win in Week 2 — Bengals, Jaguars and Lions — they usually all misplaced by 5 factors or much less. For this reason it is best to by no means decide cat groups to win. I now hate cats.
I additionally blame the Giants for not dressing a wholesome kicker. I picked the Giants to beat the Commanders and as an alternative of successful, they went out and made NFL historical past, however not the sort of historical past you wish to make.
I additionally blame the Ravens for blowing a 10-point lead within the fourth quarter towards the Raiders and the Patriots for lacking a subject purpose with 4 minutes left to play that will have put them in an important spot to upset the Seahawks. I additionally blame the Colts for not with the ability to cease the run towards a workforce that was beginning a backup quarterback.
I feel what I am attempting to say right here is that just about EVERY ONE-SCORE GAME WENT AGAINST ME IN WEEK 2. HOW IS THAT EVEN STATISTICALLY POSSIBLE?
Principally, I ought to have gone 12-4 and that is what I’ll inform myself I did as I cry myself to sleep tonight.
Picks Report
Straight up in Week 2: 4-12
SU total: 14-18
Towards the unfold in Week 2: 7-8-1
ATS total: 12-17-3