Can Notre Dame make Faculty Collage Football Playoff? Why Preventing Irish will (and will not) find yourself in 12-team subject
Notre Dame fell sufferer to what might stand as the most important upset of 2024, dropping 16-14 at house in opposition to Northern Illinois. It took the air proper of the Preventing Irish’s season, only one week after an enormous street win at Texas A&M ballooned their hopes for the Faculty Soccer Playoff and lifted them to the No. 5 spot within the AP High 25.
Now, Marcus Freeman’s squad is left with the sensation that it has already let issues slip away. The Irish had every part in entrance of them, with a manageable early schedule to construct momentum in the direction of the true meat of the slate. Notre Dame might have been, and actually ought to have been, 4-0 for its Sept. 28 contest in opposition to a top-25 Louisville workforce.
Although simply two weeks of the season have handed, it is laborious not to consider what implications a loss to Northern Illinois does for Notre Dame’s postseason outlook, particularly for the reason that fiercely unbiased Irish haven’t any form of convention championship recreation that might hep punch a worry-free ticket to the Faculty Soccer Playoff.
As such, it felt applicable to look at the explanation why the Irish can stay within the race, and why they won’t.
Why Notre Dame will nonetheless make the Faculty Soccer Playoff
If the 2023 season taught us something, it is that the choice committee could be forgiving beneath the proper circumstances. Alabama misplaced its solely significant nonconference recreation in September (vs. Texas) however went on to beat Georgia within the SEC Championship Recreation, whereas Florida State went 14-0 with an ACC title however misplaced its beginning quarterback to a devastating leg harm in November. Everyone knows how that scenario performed out.
And that was with simply 4 spots accessible. The auto-bid for every Energy 4 champion eliminates that particular state of affairs, nevertheless it applies to Notre Dame right here. If the Preventing Irish can rip off 10 straight wins — and that could be a large ask for any faculty soccer workforce — these playoff decision-makers aren’t going to have a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois on the forefront of their minds. We have already seen Notre Dame’s model and program visibility put it aside just a little bit. Positive, the Irish plummeted within the AP High 25, however they did not fall out of the highest 20 by touchdown at No. 18. That already places them inside shouting distance of a 12-team subject.
On high of that, there’s at all times an opportunity Northern Illinois, which ranked No. 25 in the latest AP ballot, goes on to beat NC State in a pair weeks and captures the Mid-American Convention championship by 12 months’s finish. That will surely take among the sting out of Notre Dame’s loss.
It isn’t like 10 extra wins aren’t attainable for the Irish, both. They will have an opportunity to pad their résumé in opposition to ranked groups like No. 19 Louisville and No. 11 USC. Although Florida State has misplaced its luster, beating the Seminoles nonetheless resonates. There are some actually good mid-tier groups like Georgia Tech and Military to pad issues out. It is is not the strongest schedule, however Notre Dame must be favored persistently till its season finale in opposition to the Trojans which, once more, units up properly as an enormous probability to depart an impression on the choice committee. — Backus
Why Notre Dame will not make the Faculty Soccer Playoff
Look, Notre Dame technically can nonetheless discover its method into the sector if fairly actually every part goes completely, however how life like is it actually? We do not know the way good that Week 1 win over Texas A&M is but. Florida State was purported to be a signature opponent, however the Seminoles are a catastrophe at 0-2. Northern Illinois, at minimal, must win the MAC and certain be a critical contender for the Group of 5’s Faculty Soccer Playoff spot (and the Huskies weren’t even picked high two of their preseason convention ballot). USC’s resurgence helps issues, however the Trojans most likely must be a CFP lock for a win to actually change the calculus, particularly since Notre Dame works with solely 12 video games as an alternative of 13.
Realistically, the trail is for Notre Dame — a workforce that simply stumbled in opposition to a MAC workforce — to win 10 straight video games, together with tough matchups like Georgia Tech, Military and No. 19 Louisville. Then, it has to hope that these wins really stay spectacular by the top of the 12 months. After which even on high of that, it has to hope that each at-large workforce within the nation finishes with a number of losses. For groups coming from the SEC, a 9-3 file may even be sufficient to complete forward of 11-1 Notre Dame, particularly if that win over Texas A&M ages poorly.
By the best way, all of this rests on the concept Notre Dame can really win 10 straight video games. If the primary two years of the Marcus Freeman expertise are any indicator, a minimum of yet one more inexplicable loss might be on the horizon. The Irish are accomplished. The excellent news is that El Paso continues to be beautiful in December. — Jeyarajah